China’s Potential Military Threat to Southeast Asia

The potential threats China poses to Southeast Asia can be placed in two broad categories: conventional military threats and more ambiguous and subtle challenges, possibly in the guise of maintaining regional order. We recognize that these categories are part of a continuum: China employs both approaches as needed—beginning with subtle or indirect threats, and escalating when that approach fails or where a “lesson” is required.1 Nevertheless, the distinction between the two kinds of threats is analytically useful: threats in the former category are easily identifiable and therefore more amenable to deliberate planning, including deterrence and response. Because of their lower profile and ambiguous nature, threats in the latter category may be more likely to materialize but harder to anticipate or counter effectively.